Trends in Livestock Grazing in the Protected Forests at Mount Kenya Region: Evidence from year 2013 to 2018 using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Mount Kenya comprises Kenya’s largest mountain ecosystem, largest protected forests, mountain wildlife areas, and water catchment for Tana River that supports over half of country’s hydroelectric power supply. The ecosystem is a hotspot for many threatened and endangered species, and a leading destination for mountain ecotourism in Eastern Africa. During the last ten years, Mount Kenya ecosystem has become increasingly threatened by wide-spread degradation. Despite the threats, current government policy provisions allow communities living adjacent to protected forests access to, and utilization of a variety of non-timber forest products, including livestock grazing. The overall objective of this research conducted in Mount Kenya West protected forest was to analyse seasonality patterns of smallholder dependence on protected forest for livestock grazing. The specific objectives of this paper were to (i) investigate monthly seasonality and trends in cattle grazing in Hombe, Chehe and Kahurura protected forests during 2013 to 2018 (ii) analyse annual trends of cattle grazing in the protected forests during the same period. Monthly data for the six years were obtained from the Kenya Forest Service (KFS). Results of the time series analysis revealed significant monthly and seasonality patterns in cattle grazing in all the three forest blocks. However, the findings indicated that there were significant differences in the magnitude of peaks of influxes and low seasons across the three forest blocks. It was found that all the three forest blocks experienced highest cattle influxes during the month of July, with Kahurura experiencing the highest cattle influx, compared to Hombe and Chehe. Yearly trends revealed a persistent decline in cattle grazing in all the forest blocks throughout the 2013 to 2017, with sharp rise beginning 2018. Proper forest management by KFS and Community Forest Associations might be required to ensure the influx during the peak season is well managed to minimize conflicts between forest conversation benefits and costs. On policy issues, the government and stakeholders need to incentivize smallholder’s farmers during high season peaks to provide alternatives livelihood sources for rural households.